Wednesday, October 22, 2008

On the bad side of MOMENTUM


Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com


John McCain is on the bad side of momentum. He doesn't have anywhere near the funds Barack Obama does, 538 has Barack Obama winning in 93% of simulations, prediction shares for John McCain winning the election are selling for less than 15 cents on the dollar as the above picture illustrates (compared to Barack Obama's prediction stock which is selling for 86 cents on the dollar). See McCain's prediction stock chart above and Obama's below.


Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com


The media continues to analyze the various problems of the McCain campaign while conservative columnist David Brooks sings Obama's praises:
We’ve been watching Barack Obama for two years now, and in all that time there hasn’t been a moment in which he has publicly lost his self-control. This has been a period of tumult, combat, exhaustion and crisis. And yet there hasn’t been a moment when he has displayed rage, resentment, fear, anxiety, bitterness, tears, ecstasy, self-pity or impulsiveness.


Democrats should not forget how easily those things earned can be taken away, and those who can should try to think back to 2004, 2002, 2000, and 1998, when momentum was not with the Democrats. Let's make sure this campaign is beyond the reach of racism, vote tampering, vote repression, bad weather, or bad luck. Let's put it away. The Obama campaign still needs your help. If you go to carleton, please contact Erika or Eddie about helping. If you don't go to Carleton or want to help beyond campus, check out what Barack and Joe Biden have for you on their website here.

More on the big Mo' from CBS Horserace:
There are plenty of signs pointing toward a decisive victory for Barack Obama in less than two weeks. The campaign is now being played out almost exclusively in those traditional Republican states John McCain must win, Democrats hold a huge advantage in new voter registration, he"s being outspent at a rate never before seen in presidential politics and the polls aren"t tightening the way many expected, at least not yet.

In case the McCain campaign needed one more reminder of the position they"re in, consider this: Barack Obama has raised over $600 million for his campaign and the Republican camp finds itself besieged with outrage this morning over a report that they"ve spent $150,000 on a makeover for Alaska Governor Sarah Palin and her family since she was selected for the ticket in September.

This is what being on the wrong side of political momentum looks like. The Politico breathlessly reported last night that the Republican National Committee spent $150,000 in shops like Neiman Marcus and Saks Fifth Avenue to "clothe and accessorize" Palin and her family for the campaign trail. Spending money on such personal items may run afoul of campaign laws although the McCain campaign says the clothes will be donated to charity after the election.

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