Thursday, October 23, 2008

McCatching Up in the Polls?


A new IBD/TIPP poll released today claims that Obama's lead is down to just 1.1 percentage points from 6.0% as of Tuesday. Should Democrats be worried? No.

Why? For one, the sampling for the poll is subtly geared toward producing a McCain-favorable result. In the demographic percentages, the 18-24 age group is admittedly (as marked by the asterisk) under-represented resulting in a 22-74 Obama-McCain split. I'm not suggesting that the whole poll is compromised because of this wide gap, but I certainly don't think that the pollsters gave this very crucial (and for the most part left-leaning) demographic its fair shake.

Also, it's an anomaly. The average poll gives Obama anywhere from a 6% to an 8% lead in the polls as shown by the above chart, courtesy of FiveThirtyEight.com.

Come November 4th it won't matter the slightest who is ahead or behind in the polls. Everything that has been leading up to this point will be nullified by who shows up to vote. We're so close. All we have to do now is Get Out the Vote!

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